Four Corners, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Bozeman Hot Springs MT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Bozeman Hot Springs MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Great Falls, MT |
Updated: 10:32 am MDT Jul 29, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 T-storms Likely
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Tonight
 T-storms Likely then Mostly Cloudy
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Wednesday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Friday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Friday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Sunny then Chance Showers
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Hi 83 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
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This Afternoon
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 83. North wind 6 to 13 mph becoming east. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Tonight
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. East southeast wind 6 to 14 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Wednesday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South southeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A 40 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Friday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. |
Saturday
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A chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. |
Sunday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. |
Monday
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A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Bozeman Hot Springs MT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
467
FXUS65 KTFX 291721
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1121 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with
strong to severe storms possible in Central and Southwest
Montana.
- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, with localized
heavier rainfall possible through the rest of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 835 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025/
Minor adjustments were made to the precipitation chances based on
updated NBM guidance. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains
on track. -thor
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 835 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Southwest flow aloft continues to bring an active pattern through
the forecast period. For this afternoon and evening, an upper
level shortwave moving from Idaho through Southwest MT will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sufficient CAPE of up to
1,500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 35kts will support the threat
for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. DCAPE of
~1,000 j/kg or greater, deep inverted V profiles, and decent mid
level lapse rates of ~8 degrees C/km support a severe wind and
hail threat. The best chances for thunderstorms will be in
Southwest MT to Central MT, where that shortwave travels through.
Coverage in North-Central MT remains more isolated, as there is
uncertainty in the northern extent of where the shortwave travels
before dissolving. PWATs will be high again today, nearing an inch
across North- Central Montana. This will cause concern for
localized areas of heavy rainfall with storms. Thunderstorm
coverage being more isolated will keep the heavy rainfall more
localized with storms. In Southwest MT, PWATs aren`t as high
(~0.75"), so heavy rainfall will remain more localized down there
as well.
Heading into Wednesday, steering flow aloft decreases which will
slow down storm propagation. A skinnier CAPE profile and high PWATs
again will help aid in the threat for heavier rainfall again. The
primary concern will be for burn scars and urban areas. Since this
threat is mainly driven by convection, it`ll be hard to pinpoint
exactly where the heavy rainfall will set up. As a result, flood
watches aren`t anticipated as of right now. This moisture will
stick around through the end of the week. Thursday looks to be the
day with the highest PWATs (reaching 1"-1.25" across North-
Central MT). Ensembles hint at southwest flow aloft will keep low
end chances for precipitation during the beginning of next week
as well.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Models have been consistent with the threat for some strong to
severe thunderstorms across parts of Southwest and Central
Montana today. Recent model guidance has this shortwave aloft
struggling to go north of a Helena to southern Fergus County line.
As a result, lesser forcing farther north will keep precipitation
this afternoon and evening isolated. Though with high moisture,
any further movement north of this forcing will increase the heavy
rainfall threat today. -Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during this TAF Period
outside of during any thunderstorms. The primary concern will be
showers and thunderstorms in Southwestern Montana. These showers
and thunderstorms will produce heavy downpours, frequent
lightning, small hail, and gusty, erratic winds. Isolated
thunderstorms in Southwestern Montana will produce large hail and
wind gusts in excess of 40 kts. At the KCTB terminal there is a
15 - 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms between 29/22Z and
30/06Z. At the KHVR terminal there is a 25% chance for showers and
thunderstorms between 29/21Z and 30/00Z. There will be periods of
mountain obscuration during thunderstorms. -IG
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 81 57 82 58 / 10 20 20 20
CTB 76 54 78 55 / 20 20 10 10
HLN 83 57 84 58 / 30 30 40 20
BZN 85 52 83 53 / 70 70 40 20
WYS 82 41 80 41 / 40 20 50 20
DLN 83 49 81 49 / 50 40 40 20
HVR 82 54 83 56 / 30 10 10 0
LWT 76 52 75 54 / 50 40 50 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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